After this tweet from Vana, I wanted to see how bad Autumn’s rolls really were (and how good Haley’s were in comparison).
Comparison between the average rolled results and the mathematically calculated average result
These graphs show how many triumphs, despairs, successes/failures and advantages/disadvantages each player has actually rolled on average and how many they should have statistically gotten.
This graph shows the differences between how many triumphs, despairs, successes/failures and advantages/disadvantages each player has gotten and how many they should have gotten.
(For example if a player has a 0.8 average rolled successes and a statistical average of 0.9 successes with their dice pool, their success rating is at -0.1.)
Average Dice Pools
Average Roll Result
- Autumn had more than one success less (or more than one failure too much) per roll(!) than she should have gotten! (-1.135 success rating)
- Haley on the other hand had almost half a success more than she should have rolled (+0.444 success rating)
- The good success score for Haley comes at a price: She got way less advantages than she should have gotten (-0.861 advantage rating)
- However, as in tradition, Autumn’s advantage luck was even worse, despite not having any successes either (-0.865 advantage rating)
- On average, Haley got 2 successes per roll
- Autumn only got 0.125 successes per roll